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Corn: Corn prices fell $0.01-$0.02/bushel this morning as December 2023 futures – trading just shy of $4.70/bushel at last glance – continued to hover at a three-year low during the overnight trading session. Harvest pressure in the U.S. continues to weigh heavily on corn prices as farmers begin to ramp up combining activities to haul in the second-largest U.S. corn crop in history.
'Corn and soybeans are slipping back as harvest pressure begins in the United States,' consultancy Agritel told Reuters this morning. Export pressure from Brazil’s record-breaking crop also limited gains for the corn market this morning.
Dry weather has led to rapid crop maturation over the past week, according to yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA. Corn maturation rates skyrocketed 20% higher through the week ending September 17 to 54% complete, 10% ahead of the five-year average for the same reporting period.
That allowed harvesting rates to pick up 4% on the week, reaching 9% complete as of Sunday. That figure is 2% ahead of the five-year average and continues to be held up by early paces in the South.
Soybeans: Soybean prices fell $0.01$0.04/bushel this morning as markets digested fresh harvest pressure across the Midwest. Despite a new soybean crush facility accepting soybean supplies in North Dakota yesterday, markets remain spooked by Friday’s NOPA data that showed August 2023 soy volumes dipping to the smallest monthly crush rates in 11 months.
“The onset of harvesting has shifted attention away from parched summer weather that has contributed to crop ratings for corn and soybeans being estimated by the USDA at their lowest in a decade,” Gus Trompiz and Naveen Thukral wrote for Reuters this morning.
Soybean crops continue to drop their leaves (mature) at a fast pace relative to historic benchmarks due to dry weather across the Midwest this summer. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report from USDA found that 54% of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves as of September 17, up 23% from the previous week and 11% ahead of the five-year benchmark for the same reporting period.
Yesterday’s report also marked the first time that USDA reported on soybean harvest progress this season. Pre-report trade estimates had projected that 4% of this year’s soybean crop had been harvested by Sunday, but USDA’s figure came in 1% higher at 5% complete.
Similar to corn, the dry weather and fast maturation speeds for soybeans will inevitably lead to an early and fast harvest season this fall. While much of the early harvest progress is centered in the South, farmers further north are just starting to get into the fields. But for as fast as this crop is dropping leaves, soybean prices edged slightly lower this morning in anticipation of rapid harvest progress expected in the coming weeks.
Wheat: Wheat prices fell $0.02-$0.07/ bushel lower during the overnight trading session. Lower prices for Russian wheat exports are pulling down wheat prices across the globe. Plus, Ukraine reported a grain cargo had safely departed the Black Sea port at Chornomorsk, paving the way for more grain supplies to flow unhindered out of Ukraine.
“Funds view the lack of action by the Russians as a sell signal,” analysts at Stone said in a note, as reported by Reuters.
Winter wheat planting is progressing at a steady clip, though farmers continue to hope for more rain across the Plains to help with germination and early crop development. Through the week ending September 17, 15% of the anticipated 2024 winter wheat acres had been planted, up 8% from the previous week and 1% below of the 5YA.
